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specification-curve

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How fast can a coding agent p-hack? Measured: on known-zero data, realistic searches manufacture p<.05 on 33-97% of null draws, in ~1 second each. Instrumented specification-search engine + 11 Claude Code skills for econometric designs; every search leaves a verifiable ledger and an honest p-value. Research and teaching use only.

  • Updated Sep 7, 2026
  • Python

Circuit-level interpretability evidence does not survive defensible analytic variation. Pre-registered multiverse over 15,840 specifications; the derived EU AI Act Annex IV claim flips across 73.2% of specification pairs. arXiv:2608.13754

  • Updated Oct 1, 2026
  • Python

221 dengue outbreaks × 144 analysis choices = 33,152 model fits. Three-quarters of the variation in whether climate forcing is endorsed is analytical, not geographic — and most of that is an outbreak × analysis interaction no convention can remove.

  • Updated Aug 23, 2026
  • Python

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