feat(orchestrator-tick): fleet token economy — burn forecast, dynamic cadence, model tiers, context rollover — v0.46.0 (BRO-3013)

[broomva]

BRO-3013 (https://linear.app/broomva/issue/BRO-3013). The shared base's half of the fleet token economy. The broomva overlay and implementation are in broomva/workspace (companion PR).

Why. On 2026-10-09 the fleet used about 43M input+output tokens and about 17.9B cache-read tokens in 24 h. Most of that was long-lived sessions re-reading huge contexts. team@ went from 0% to 48% of its 7d window in about 23 h, while devteam@ was limited until 10-12. The §7 gates only look at present utilization, so they could not see the coming stretch with no capacity at all.

What (v0.46.0):

• §2: the fire period is dynamic. The tick re-sets its own heartbeat from capacity.cadence: 2h, 4h, 6h, or read-only.
• §3: the snapshot adds capacity and sessions sections.
• §5: driven sessions above 600k context get a successor, not a resume.
• §7: the burn forecast. A 7d burn rate from 24h of samples, with a window-average fallback. Runway is compared with relief, the earliest 7d reset. A cadence ladder holds launches and caps driven sessions. Each tick appends an economy event to loops/economy.
• §8: launch briefs carry a model tier: Haiku 4.5 for mechanical work, Sonnet 5 for standard work, Opus 5.5 or Fable 5.1 for design, governance and P20.
• §11: context accounting. Sessions above 400k are handoff candidates, and the orchestrator rolls over above 400k. Successors are seeded by a handoff note.

Dep-Chain (P14).

• Upstream: provider_manager.py --json usage|state, and Paseo heartbeats (update_schedule).
• Downstream: every overlay that reads this base, which today means the broomva coordinator-tick overlay (companion PR) and the SRI orchestrator. The SRI orchestrator inherits the rules; its snapshot lives in its own repo and is not touched here.

P20 (Cross-Review) — one stratum, Codex gpt-5.5, combined bstack + workspace diff

Round	Score	Findings	Resolution
r1	5/10	5 MAJOR: unknown relief passed; driven sessions aged out after 24 h; sessions' driven test narrower than census; stale economy-last.json recordable; sample cache race	all fixed in fix(loops): P20 r1, each with a test and a mutant
r2	6/10	r1 fixes verified; 2 MAJOR: is_arc matched unparented agents on an unknown SELF; summary not tick-bound	fixed in fix(loops): P20 r2 (probe + ULID-bound refusal, exercised end to end)
r3	8/10 PASS	no BLOCKER/MAJOR; MINOR: stale usage could read normal	fixed: stale usage fails closed to conserve (test + mutant); future-dated snapshot_at left as clock-skew hardening

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Summary by CodeRabbit

• Documentation
  • Documented capacity-based heartbeat scheduling, including read-only operation when account utilization is high.
  • Added guidance for capacity forecasts, fleet runway, operating modes, and limits on launches and active sessions.
  • Clarified when to start successor sessions or roll over context, and expanded snapshot and session tracking requirements.
  • Added model-tier guidance for different types of work.

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• references/orchestrator-tick.md

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📝 Walkthrough

Walkthrough

The orchestrator protocol adds capacity-based tick cadence and operating limits, session successor and rollover rules, and model tiers for launches. The changelog records these updates, and the version changes to 0.46.0.

Changes

Fleet token-economy protocol

Layer / File(s)	Summary
Capacity forecasts and tick cadence references/orchestrator-tick.md	The snapshot contract adds capacity and sessions sections. The protocol defines burn forecasts, runway, relief, operating modes, tick cadence, and economy event records.
Session successors and rollover references/orchestrator-tick.md	Driven sessions above 600k context receive a fresh successor with a handoff note. The orchestrator rollover trigger includes context above 400k and being past use.
Launch model tiers and release metadata references/orchestrator-tick.md, CHANGELOG.md, VERSION	Launch briefs record a model tier. The changelog describes the protocol update, and VERSION changes from 0.45.1 to 0.46.0.

Priority: ➖ Normal

Estimated code review effort: 2 (Simple) | ~10 minutes

Change: Feature

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Merge Risk: 🔵 Low · up to 546c1

When capacity restrictions apply, the protocol does not say whether to launch a required successor or defer it, or how that interacts with orchestrator rollover. Clarify this lifecycle before relying on the protocol for constrained-capacity ticks.

Pre-merge checks | 5

✅ Passed checks (5 passed)

Check name	Status	Explanation
Description Check		Check skipped - CodeRabbit’s high-level summary is enabled.
Title check		The title clearly identifies the main fleet token-economy changes, including burn forecasting, dynamic cadence, model tiers, context rollover, and version context. It is detailed but remains specific …
Docstring Coverage		No functions found in the changed files to evaluate docstring coverage. Skipping docstring coverage check. Docstring coverage is scoped to functions touched by this diff. Analyzed 0 functions across 0…
Linked Issues check		Check skipped because no linked issues were found for this pull request.
Out of Scope Changes check		Check skipped because no linked issues were found for this pull request.

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Actionable comments posted: 1

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• 🪄 Fix CodeRabbit comments on this PR

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Inline comments:
Review comments at @references/orchestrator-tick.md:
- Line 156: Clarify the `sessions.successor_due` behavior when launch
restrictions apply: `conserve` and `critical` block the required successor
launch, and `read_only` blocks both launch and resume. While blocked, leave the
old session unresumed and unarchived; specify how the deferred successor is
handled when the independent orchestrator rollover trigger fires.

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