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Short_Rate_Prediction

predict 3m short rate that shifts out 6 months

Please see report.pdf

The ML model doesn't really work, but it was fun to work on. The math model seems to be working

To run the project

all *.csv and *.py files under the /math_model folder need to be downloaded and saved in the same directory

change the starting month at line 203 in analyze.py to preferred date

change analyze window at line 218 in analyze.py to preferred range

default values are 36 and 12 respectively, meaning starting at the 36th month, and predict next 6 months of short rate every 12 months

run python analyze.py

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predict 3m short rate that shifts out 6 months

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